Heads Up Blackjack Odds
The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand. Dealer Final Hand Probabilities. If you’re willing to put in a little work, blackjack offers the best odds. I’m talking about a.5 percent casino edge, depending on which table you’re sitting at. (Meaning for every dollar you gamble, you’ll lose only half a penny on average.) But to get these ultra-good odds, you have to know what you’re doing.
First off, which might surprise people is that 'a higher spread heads up isn't exactly more optimal'. Now that might not make sense at first but let me explain with the numbers. Playing 2 hands throughout the shoe off the top at 0 and -1 before you wong out OUTPERFORMS 1 HAND at 0 and -1 and then spreading to 2 hands at +1 and higher. So even if someone is going from 1x10 off the top to 2x200(1-40 spread), the 2x10 to 2x200(1-20 spread) WILL OUTPERFORM on every metric other than risk(ROR) where it increases a smaller percentage. That's right, a smaller spread heads up will actually outperform 1 hand at negatives and then spreading to 2 hands and that's where I went wrong in PA. I would always play 1 hand and then move to 2 hands in plus counts. The win rate, N0, and SCORE all drastically improve by playing 2 hands off the top and throughout all the positives. With that being said, in terms of N0, the higher the minimum and the tighter the spread, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will NOT outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1, So for example 2x25-2x200 will not outperform 1x25-2x200 in terms of N0. But if the minimums are lower, 2x10-2x200 will outperform 1x10-2x200.
Secondly, when you play with others, funnily enough, the metrics all improve when you do the opposite. Playing 1 hand when playing with others improves the N0, lowers the risk and improves the SCORE. The 2 hand approach at 0 and -1 still outperforms on the win rate, but the only time 2 hands playing with others at 0 and -1 would outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1 on any metric would be the N0 if you're spreading huge but it still wont be by much. So as a general rule of thumb when playing with others, it's best to play with 1 hand at 0 or -1 or better yet just backcount and sit out every negative expectation bet.
So to summarize, 2 hands at 0 and -1 heads up is the optimal move over 1 hand at 0 and -1 IF the minimums are low and your spread is high. In regards to playing with others, playing with 1 hand at 0 and -1 is the optimal move unless you spread huge where then even 2 hands at negatives when playing with others will outperform on N0. In regards to win rate, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will always outperform in any scenario regardless if heads up or playing with others. ROR will always be higher as well when playing 2 hands at 0 and -1 in any scenario. N0 and SCORE is where the 1 hand vs 2 hands at 0 and -1 whether heads up or with others is the difference.
Sorry if I made anyone's head spin with this, but I finally took a hard long look at all of this.
Table Of Contents
With Daniel Negreanu confirming that his heads-up match against Doug Polk will commence this week on November 4th, we take a look at the betting markets available on PokerShares to see if any would be worth wagering on.
The site currently has 14 separate markets relating to the match, and here PokerNews runs through some of the more interesting ones.
About PokerShares
First set up in 2017, PokerShares has given players the opportunity to bet on all manner of markets, both inside the world of poker and out.
From the Aussie Millions and the Galfond Challenge to the US Election and how many cases of coronavirus there will be in the US (although the latter was ultimately pulled after ten hours due to 'negative feedback on social media and reconsideration'.)
PokerShares founder Mike 'Timex' McDonald said that they wanted to make the challenge as engaging as possible for viewers, therefore offering more than just the normal bets on how the market plays out.
Therefore players are able to place bets on anything from 'Will Doug return to professional poker?' to 'Will there be any slowrolling?'
The Main Markets
Heads Up Poker Odds Calculator
McDonald says that PokerShares opened the markets 'very early' within only a few minutes of the pair challenging each other to the match.
'The odds started out as even,' said McDonald. 'I believe 1.93 on each player as we were only going by details on Twitter and didn't even know the format of the match.'
However, at time of publication (November 2nd), Doug Polk has moved ahead as a strong favorite to win the match according to the odds:
Heads Up Poker Odds
Doug Polk vs Daniel Negreanu
| Player | Decimal | American | Fractional |
| Daniel Negreanu | 5.40 | +440 | 22/5 |
| Doug Polk | 1.17 | -588 | 7/41 |
Other Markets
There are several markets relating to the first session, scheduled to take place live on PokerGO on November 4th. These include whether a player will slowroll during Session 1 (No +105, Yes -128), the size of the biggest pot (Over $100k +105, Under $100k -128) and who will get stacked first (Polk +100, Negreanu -116).
Other markets relate to the potential fallout from the match including:
- Will Doug Polk return to being a pro player after this challenge? (Yes +660, No -1000)
- Will Daniel Negreanu cease to be a poker player because of this challenge? (Yes +1400, No -5000)
- What date will the challenge conclude? (February 1st 2021 or later +105, January 31st 2021 or earlier -128)
Odds correct at time of publication - 2nd November 2020
Timex Tells All
McDonald told PokerNews that he thinks the match has the potential to be 'the most exciting grudge match poker has ever seen.'
'What makes the challenge especially exciting, is that Daniel decided he wanted to beat Doug at his own game. Originally we expected them to each pick their best game and rotate what they play.
'...the most exciting grudge match poker has ever seen'
'On one hand, you've got Doug, once the clear number one Heads-Up No Limit (HUNL) player in the world, but he's four years removed from competitive play.
'On the other hand, you've got Daniel. Not a heads-up specialist but the most famous and among the most successful all-around poker players of all time.'
McDonald says that there has been an interesting dynamic when it comes to those betting on either Negreanu or Polk.
'Generally the guys betting on Doug have never played live, and the guys betting on Daniel have never played online! It's an interesting dynamic where I think online players tend to estimate Daniel, and live players tend to underestimate Doug.'
However, he went on to say that PokerShares has seen 'shockingly little' volume from any of the players who have substantial experience playing with both.